OpenAI: Up & To The Right

OpenAI: Up & To The Right

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This gem came in my inbox this morning from The Information:

Still, OpenAI’s business dwarfs competitors like Cohere and Mistral. OpenAI is expecting to more than triple revenue this year, from $3.7 billion to $12.7 billion, we scooped Friday. OpenAI told investors that it forecasts most of its revenue for the next two years to come from ChatGPT—showing how lucrative the market for AI applications can be.

OpenAI is probably still burning cash, but this type of revenue increase shows the demand for AI. Not only that, it is a proxy for the value people see in it. You don’t plop down $240 – $2,400 annually just for the “fun” of talking to an LLM.

OpenAI is also seeing this huge increase from ChatGPT, the online application version of their LLMs, which is different the paying for API access to their LLMs.

Upwork Content Moderation Is Still Awful

Upwork Content Moderation Is Still Awful

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Yes, I’m here to complain again in the hope that someday Google will rank these posts high enough someone at Upwork notices.

Today I am hiring for copy-editing and fact checking an eBook. I’ve done extensive work on this already, but want another set of eyes. My job description included links to the documents in question, and I wanted to know if the applicants had reviewed them.

So I sent this message:

Policy alert notification indicating a message was removed for including contact information, violating terms of service. Below, a conversation with Jonathan Addington asking about document review, total hours estimate, and meeting a 48-hour deadline.

And as you can see, it was blocked. Changing the top line to, “Did you look at the documents in the job description?” got around the block.

Their chat support is clearly LLM-only, portion of that:

[Upwork] If your messages are being blocked and you believe they do not contain contact information, there might be another reason triggering the block. Unfortunately, we cannot disclose the exact part of your message that was flagged. However, if you feel there should be an exception for your case, we can look into it further. Would you like to proceed with exploring an exception?

[Me]: I didn’t provide contact details at all
[Upwork]: Thank you for clarifying. If you believe your message was blocked without including contact details, and none of the exception reasons apply, it might be due to another aspect of the message. Unfortunately, we can’t specify what triggered the block. If you have any more details or specific concerns, feel free to share, and I’ll do my best to assist you further.

Moravec’s Paradox

Moravec’s Paradox

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(I realized only when I was almost finished writing this post that all I had really done was to restate Moravec’s paradox: “it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility.” Or as Steven Pinker put it, “the main lesson of thirty-five years of AI research is that the hard problems are easy and the easy problems are hard”.)

Timothy B. Lee quoting Steve Newman.

Order Plaud from Amazon

Order Plaud from Amazon

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I made the mistake of ordering a Plaud device from Plaud’s website. A week and a half later, it isn’t here. It will be at least 12 days from purchase before it arrives.

A friend ordered one off of Amazon the same day I ordered direct from Plaud. He had it 24 hours later.

WSJ: Some Trump Voters Already Have Regret

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The WSJ is out with an article on Feb 17, 2025, that a focus group they are tracking already has some Trump voters showing regret.

One voter:

“Now I’m like: ‘Dang, why didn’t I just pick Kamala?’”

And another:

Anderson, who works with disabled adults, said Kennedy’s government role is the only bright spot for a vote she categorizes as the “biggest mistake of my life.”

Of course, this will never be most Trump voters and I don’t want you to go away thinking I believe otherwise. Somewhere around 30% of Americans are all-in on Trump and will be for the foreseeable future.

Really, what is interesting is how fast this happened. There will always people that change their minds later, but we haven’t yet made it a month in.

Reading through the article another theme is coming up: people didn’t believe that Turmp will do everything he said he’d so on the campaign trail. I found this out recently in Florida as well, as I questioned my Uber drivers — all from out of the country — what they thought of Trump and his immigration policies. To a person, they didn’t think the policies would affect them because they were not illegals. Completely ignoring the anti-immigration rhetoric against Latin and South America from the last year, which was not only about illegal immigration. (Haitians eating pets, did we already forget that?)

And of course, it took 9 days to start turning out 600,000 Venuzualans.

It will be interesting to see, (1) how much more happens that people didn’t expect to actually happen, that was promised, and (2) how wide the regret will run. I’m guessing 2%-5% of Trump voters in the next year or so.

But we’ll see.

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