The Information: 60% Chance of AGI by 2028

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The Information just published results of a reader survey that shows that nearly 60% of its readers believe that OpenAI, another company, or both, will achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within three years. A really short definition of AGI is, AI that is as smart or smarter than humans in most things. That’s much different from ChatGPT today which is brilliant at some things and awful at others.

I spend a lot of time thinking about AGI these days, and the ramifications are staggering. 60% of people in-the-know think that AI will be able to take over most knowledge jobs within 3 years. That doesn’t mean we have the tech integrated in three years.

Humanity is not remotely ready for this change.

The Information is a very-niche news source with a lot of niche-readers who are more in-tune with Silicon Valley and tech than most other outlets, so the survey results are far more informative than something that NYT or WaPo might come up with.

Two pie charts comparing AGI achievement predictions within three years. The first chart shows OpenAI predictions: 57% believe AGI will be achieved, 34% do not, and 9% are unsure. The second chart shows predictions from other companies: 60% believe AGI will be achieved, 31% do not, and 9% are unsure.

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