Election 2024: There Will Be No Spoilers

Politics | 0 comments

For the rest of this year and probably into the beginning of next we will have to endure an endless string of headlines that cover the latest threat to Trump winning the Republican nomination and editorials about why President Biden ought not to run again.

Trump is going to run no matter what, it doesn’t matter if he wins the primary or not. Let that sink in, it literally does not matter if DeSantis, or Haley or Christie or whoever the next darling not-Trump candidate is, he is going to run unless he’s dead. He’ll be running from prison if it comes to that.

Losing the nomination poses a minimal threat to Trump: three candidates could easily pull enough electoral votes off of Biden that the election is thrown to the House where Trump most likely wins.

Ignore any and all articles about So and So is a Threat to Trump. They are all clickbait or fantasy.

Hint: She isn’t

In six months the Trump opposition will rally around Biden. It’s easy to say he shouldn’t run and that he is a massive risk to the Democrat’s cause now, especially if you believe that in a fantasy world Trump loses the nomination and then doesn’t run. The reality of a Biden v Trump matchup hasn’t hit the anti-Trump forces yet.

Polling also reflects a world where the matchup isn’t yet known. Sure, there are independents and Democrats that would rather not see Biden run again (me!), and they’ll answer polls today with that perspective. They won’t answer them that way when Trump runs away with the nomination.

As soon as it is clear the Trump is — officially — the enemy in the general election all of this handwringing will fall away. Anyone doubting Biden’s age and fitness will explain why it’s fine now, polling will take a swing back towards Biden and probably show that fault lines haven’t budged since 2020, Dean Phillips will realize he isn’t helping (or worse, he is just completely ignored) and drop out and endorse Biden. Surrogates will suddenly figure out how to talk about Biden’s accomplishments over the last three years.

The progressive conversation will crystalize on the events of Jan 6 and Trump’s current legal fights. Right now, there is a lot of popcorn munching on the left as Trump fights multiple indictments. As soon as the indicted is a more clear and present danger it will return to shrill warnings.

Really, the most incredible part of the internal conversation on the left is that it ignores Trump completely and focuses soley on Biden.

By the time you are cracking open a cold one for Memorial Day all the op-eds about either Trump or Biden that are popular today will be forgotten, found only with cobwebs on them in Politico’s archive.


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